Horse Racing

Breeders Cup Prediction & Betting Tips 11/04/2023

Chris Haslam
November 2, 2023
Last Updated: 12/13/2023

Selections

Breeders Cup 11/04/2023:

Breeders Cup:

6:30: Cody’s Wish
7:10: Warm Heart
7:50: Ushba Tesoro
8:30: Up to the Mark

Breeders Cup Prediction & Betting Tips 11/04/2023:

We move on to the second day of the Breeders’ Cup meeting at Santa Anita on Saturday and now it is time for the main event as the older horses take centre stage. Our team have looked through the card and found 4 horses they like.

Cody’s Wish There is no doubt that Cody’s Wish sets a fair standard here. He has a wonderful back story, but he has also delivered consistently on the track, winning 9 f his 14 races, including this contest 12-months ago. He has won 3 times this season, including a 6-length win in the Vosburgh Stakes at Aqueduct last month which should have put him spot on for this race, but his price reflects his chance, and it is easy enough to pick holes in the form of that win last month. The absence of both Practical Move and Algiers due to injury has left this race open to last years’ winner and it will be a huge surprise if he doesn’t win once again.

The European runners look set to dominate this race once again and their most obvious candidate is the Aiden O’Brien trained Warm Heart. She has already won the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot this year, as well as the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille and looks to have been saved for this race and crucially the better ground. From stall 2, Ryan Moore should be able to dictate the pace in front and the race looks likely to setup perfectly for her. Warm Heart has already proven that she can handle the stresses and strains of travelling Internationally and as she arrives fresher than most, she should have a significant edge from a great draw.

This is probably one of the most open renewals of this race in living memory. Open and competitive, but without a standout candidate from the US based runners, there is an obvious error in the market and the value play is surely with the Japanese runner Ushba Tesoro. He has already won a Dubai World Cup this year and has been saved for this race ever since. He won on his comeback in September with a minimum of fuss and in a middle distance world that is beginning to be dominated by the Japanese, he seems to be an obvious choice. There is perhaps a little bit of recency bias in the early markets, but the strength of his Dubai World Cup form is at least on a par with the likes of Arcangelo and Arabian Knight. Stall 8 is not ideal, but it could have been worse, and he is tactically versatile, so it is not essential that he gets into a prominent position. He is a vastly experienced 6-year-old who is very consistent and at the time of writing, we felt he should be favourite and so he is the value play of the meeting.

The horses based in the UK and Ireland set a very fair standard. Auguste Rodin is a Derby winner, whilst both Mostahdaf and King of Steel have Group 1 wins on their CVs already this season, but all of them have had a hard campaign and that could create an opportunity for an outsider to take advantage if one or more of them were to disappoint. Up to the Mark makes the most appeal. He is untried at this distance, but he has already won the Manhattan Stakes over 10-furlongs this season and he overcame all manner of traffic to win the Coolmore Turf Mile last time. That victory over Master of the Seas gives us a good guide as to the strength of his form when compared to the Europeans and as a result, he is probably slightly overpriced after a lighter campaign than many of his rivals.

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Breeders Cup Prediction & Betting Tips 11/04/2023

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Breeders Cup Prediction & Betting Tips 11/04/2023:

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