Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Preview
At 8:20 ET, it’s a week 18 NFL battle between the Dolphins and Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. Don’t miss it on NBC as the game takes place on Sunday, January 7th.
i Check out BetCoco for Miami Dolphins – Buffalo Bills odds
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season saw the Bills put together a 2-1 record in the three head to head matchups between the teams. The two teams averaged a combined 55.3 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1. Against the spread, the Dolphins went 3-0. In these head-to-head matchups, the Bills’ offense averaged 455.3 yards per game compared to the Dolphins at 282.7.
In the last three games between Miami and Buffalo, the Bills have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 12 points per contest. Across the last three head-to-head matchups, Buffalo is averaging 38 points compared to Miami at 26.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction
This week will be the Bills’ 12th game against an AFC opponent. Their overall record is 10-6 while going 6-5 against other teams in the AFC. In the standings, Buffalo is 2nd in the division and 6th in the AFC. Against the spread, the Bills have a record of 6-10. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently +8.3. Throughout this season, Buffalo games have averaged 45.4 points, ranking them 12th in the NFL. They hold an over/under record of 6-10, with an average OU line of 45.8 points.
Buffalo has had no problem scoring on the road this season, ranking 5th in the NFL in road scoring. Overall, their average of 26.9 points per contest is 5th in the league. In terms of turnovers, the Buffalo defense has 28 takeaways, which is 2nd in the NFL. Overall, they are giving up 18.6 points per game and 309.2 yards.
As they prepare to face the Bills, the Dolphins hold a 11-5 record. Within the AFC-East, they currently sit in 1st place and are 2nd place in the AFC. Against the spread, the Dolphins have a record of 10-6. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently +7. The average over/under line for Miami games this season is currently 46.9 points. They have an over/under record of 9-7 with an average margin against the over/under of +6.3.
As they enter week 18, the Dolphins offense ranks 1st in the league, averaging 30.1 points per contest. On defense, the Dolphins are giving up an average of 213.5 passing yards per game and 95.1. In terms of sacks, Miami is 3rd among other defenses and they are giving up 23.1 points per game and 308.6 yards.
Even though they are considered 3-point underdogs, our projection points to a 27-26 win for the Dolphins. Based on our simulations, the Dolphins holds a 51% probability of taking down the Bills.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Betting Tips
- We like the Dolphins on the moneyline (+135)
- The Dolphins are also our pick on the spread at +3
- Projecting a combined 53 points, we like the over
Miami Dolphins Injury Report
- Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
- Xavien Howard – Foot (Doubtful)
- Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Out)
- Alexander Johnson – Undisclosed (Out)
- Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
- Tua Tagovailoa – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Jaelan Phillips – Achilles (Out)
- Jaylen Waddle – Ankle (Questionable)
- Salvon Ahmed – Foot (Out)
- Robert Hunt – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Bradley Chubb – Knee (Out)
- Isaiah Wynn – Quadriceps (Out)
- Connor Williams – Knee (Out)
- Jerome Baker – Knee (Out)
- Raheem Mostert – Knee/ankle (Questionable)
Buffalo Bills Injury Report
- Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
- Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
- Damar Hamlin – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Damien Harris – Neck (Out)
- Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
- Matt Milano – Lower Leg (Out)
- Josh Allen – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
- Jordan Phillips – Wrist (Out)
