Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Preview
This Wild Card round NFL showdown between the Dolphins and Chiefs can be found on PEA at 8:00 (1/13/24). The game will be held at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City (MO).
In a matchup between two AFC teams, the Chiefs are 4 point favorites at home. Are they they best bet against the spread? Check out my breakdown and analysis of this matchup below. Check out BetCoco for Kansas City Chiefs – Miami Dolphins odds
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Head-to-Head and Key Stats
In the last three games between Miami and Kansas City, the Chiefs have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 9 points per contest. Across the last three head-to-head matchups, Kansas City is averaging 27 points compared to Miami at 18.
- Across their last three road contests, Miami has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 32 points per game.
- Across the Chiefs last ten home games, the team averaged 23 points per game while allowing 19. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 6-3-1, while going 8-2 straight-up.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Dolphins have a straight up record of 1-9. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.
- The last five games that Kansas City was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-3-1 while going 2-3 straight up.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Prediction
Going into this weeks matchup, the Dolphins seek to end their two game losing streak. So far, they have an overall record of 11-6 and are positioned 2nd in the AFC-East. Taking a look at the Dolphins’ scoring margin this season, it is currently at +6.2. This has resulted in an ATS record of 10-7. Throughout this season, Miami games have averaged 52.2 points, ranking them 1st in the NFL. They hold an over/under record of 9-8, with an average OU line of 47 points.
The Dolphins come in with an average 29.2 points per game on offense, which has them 2nd in the NFL. Defensively, Miami is 21st in points allowed. So far, opponents are averaging 23 points per game against them on 318.3 yards allowed per contest.
This season, the Chiefs hold the 1st position in the AFC-West with an overall record of 11-6. In non-conference games, they have a record of 2-3, and in AFC action, they are 9-3. The Chiefs’ scoring margin for the season is currently +4.5. This has contributed to their ATS record of 9-7-1. Up to this point in the season, games featuring Kansas City have ranked 26th in total points. They have maintained an over/under record of 5-12, and the average over/under line for their games is 45.9 points.
This season, the Kansas City offense has an average of 21.8 points, placing them 13th in the league. In terms of turnovers, the Kansas City defense has 17 takeaways, which is 13th in the NFL. Overall, they are giving up 17.3 points per game and 289.8 yards.
Coming in as 4 point favorites, our projections have the Chiefs picking up a 22-20 win. In terms of win probabilities, our analytics gives Kansas City 57% chance of taking down the Dolphins.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Betting Tips
- Take the Chiefs on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Dolphins (+4)
- Our NFL model projects 42 points, and we suggest taking the under
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
- Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
- Charles Omenihu – Suspension (Out)
- Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
- Travis Kelce – Knee (Out)
Miami Dolphins Injury Report
- Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
- Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
- Jalen Ramsey – Knee (Out)
- Nik Needham – Achilles (Out)
- Jeff Wilson Jr. – Finger (Out)
- Robert Jones – Knee (Out)
