Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview
At 6:30 ET, the Chiefs and Bills meet up at Highmark Stadium for a Divisional round NFL matchup. The action will be broadcast on CBS, and it’s all happening on Sunday, January 21st.
In a matchup between two AFC teams, the Bills are 2.5-point favorites at home. Are they the best bet against the spread? Check out my breakdown and analysis of this matchup below. Check out BetCoco for Buffalo Bills – Kansas City Chiefs odds
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Head-to-Head and Key Stats
In their only head-to-head matchup last season, the Bills won by a score of 24-20. In their only head-to-head matchup, the team scored 44 points, which fell below the over/under line of 54.5. The Bills covered the spread in last year’s matchup. Offensively, the Bills finished with 318 passing yards and 125 rushing yards in their win over the Chiefs. As for Kansas City, they ended the game with 387 yards of total offense.
When looking back on the last three times the Bills and Chiefs have played each other, Buffalo has the edge with a record of 2-1. However, the average scoring differential in these matchups is dead even with each team averaging 26 points per game.
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
The Chiefs currently hold the 1st spot in the AFC-West this season, with an overall record of 11-6. In games outside their conference, they have a 2-3 record, and in AFC games, they have an AFC record. The current scoring margin for the Chiefs’ is +5.3, and this has contributed to their ATS record of 10-7-1. Kansas City has an over/under record of 5-13 so far this year. Their average over/under betting line stands at 45.8 points, and their games have averaged a combined 38.8 points per game.
The Chiefs come in with an average 22.1 points per game on offense, which has them 15th in the NFL. On the defensive front, the Chiefs enter the game as the 8th-ranked team in tackles for loss and 2nd in sacks. Their opponents are averaging 16.7 points per game against them, along with an average of 288.3 yards per contest.
As they prepare to face the Chiefs, the Bills carry an 11-6 record. Within the AFC-East, they are currently in 1st place and are positioned 2nd in the AFC overall. The Bills hold a 8-10 record against the spread. As we approach the Divisional round, their scoring margin stands at +8.6 per game. Buffalo games this season have averaged 45 points, which is 14th in the NFL. Their over/under record is 7-11, with an average OU line of 45.6 points.
Regarding their offense, the Bills have an average 26.8 points per game, which places them 6th in the NFL. Going up against the Chiefs’ offense, the Bills’ defense has allowed an average of 18.2 points per game. So far this season, they are 4th in quarterback hits and have yielded an average of 308.1 yards per contest.
Based on our analysis, we foresee the Bills winning the game with a predicted score of 27-23. Our advanced model assigns the Bills a 61% chance of emerging as the victors.
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Tips
- Take the Bills on the moneyline
- The Bills should also cover at -2.5
- Projecting a combined 50 points, we like the over
Buffalo Bills Injury Report
- Baylon Spector – Hamstring (Out)
- Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
- Von Miller – Knee (Out)
- Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
- Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
- Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
- Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
- Charles Omenihu – Suspension (Out)
- Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
