Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
At 1:00 ET, the Steelers and Bills face each other at Highmark Stadium in a Wild Card round NFL contest. CBS will broadcast the game, scheduled for Sunday, January 14th.
In a matchup between two AFC teams, the Bills are 10 point favorites at home. Are they they best bet against the spread? Check out my breakdown and analysis of this matchup below. Check out BetCoco for Buffalo Bills – Pittsburgh Steelers odds
Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Bills picked up a 38-3 over the Steelers in their only head-to-head matchup last season. In their only head-to-head matchup, the team’s scored 41 points which fell below the over/under line of 44.5. The Bills covered the spread in last year’s matchup. In last year’s win, the Bills finished with 552 of total offense, with 120 coming in the running game and 432 through the air. On the other side, the Steelers ended the game with 364 of offense.
In the last five head to head matchups, the Bills have had the upper-hand, going 3-2. Looking back over the previous three times that the Steelers and Bills have faced off, they have combined to average 39 points per game and have an over/under record of 0-3.
Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
Entering the Wild Card round, Pittsburgh is positioned 3rd in the AFC-North with a 10-7 record. In the AFC, they are currently in 7th place. So far this season, the Steelers are above .500 vs. the spread at 10-7. Their average scoring margin this season is -1.2. So far this season, the Steelers hold an over/under record of 6-11. The average over/under betting line in their games has been 38.8 points, and their games have averaged a combined 36.9 points.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers currently hold an average of 17.9 points per game, which places them at 26th in the NFL. When it comes to turnovers, the Pittsburgh defense has forced 27 takeaways, putting them 5th in the NFL. Overall, they are allowing 19.1 points per game and yielding 342.1 yards.
This week will be the Bills’ 10th game at home, where they have yet to lose (7-2). Their overall mark of 11-6 has them 1st in the AFC-East. In the AFC, they are in 2nd place. The Bills have a 7-10 ATS record so far. As we enter week 1, their scoring margin per game is +8.2. The Bills are currently working with an average over/under line of 46 points this season. Their games have been averaging 44.8 points per game, resulting in an over/under record of 6-11.
The Buffalo offense is currently ranked 6th in the league, averaging 26.5 points per contest. The Bills defense comes into the game with rankings of 10th in tackles for loss and 4th in sacks. Their opponents have been scoring 18.3 points per game and gaining 307.2 yards (per game).
The Bills enter this game as 10-point favorites and in our projections and we anticipate them winning by a score of 26-18. In terms of win probabilities, our analytics suggests that the Buffalo team has a 73% chance of prevailing over the Steelers.
Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Tips
- Take the Bills on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Steelers (+10)
- Projecting a combined 44 points, we like the over
Buffalo Bills Injury Report
- Baylon Spector – Hamstring (Out)
- Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
- Damar Hamlin – Gameday Inactive (Out)
- Alec Anderson – Gameday Inactive (Out)
- Kaiir Elam – Gameday Inactive (Out)
- Kingsley Jonathan – Gameday Inactive (Out)
- Germain Ifedi – Gameday Inactive (Out)
- Von Miller – Knee (Out)
- Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
- Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
- Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
Pittsburgh Steelers Injury Report
- Cory Trice Jr. – Knee (Out)
- Alfonzo Graham – Shoulder (Out)
- Renell Wren – Achilles (Out)
