Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat Preview
Betting on today’s Heat and Suns game? Catch the action at Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ, as the Suns hosts this showdown at 9:00 ET on AZFa.
The over/under for this game is set at 229.5 points, and the Suns are the home favorites against the Heat in a non-conference matchup. Check out BetCoco for Phoenix Suns – Miami Heat odds
Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Over their previous five games against the Suns, the Heat have put together a record of 3-2. The over/under record in the five most recent head to head games between the Heat and Suns is 2-3 with an average of 208 points per game. The last three times that the Heat have been on the road vs. the Suns, the over/under record is 3-2.
- Through their last three road contests, the Heat offense has averaged 107 points per game while allowing an average of 111. Miami posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
- In their last three games at home, the Suns have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 112 points per game in this stretch.
- Through their last three games as the underdog, the Heat have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.
- Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Suns have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-3.
Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat Prediction
As the Miami Heat take on the Suns, they are the slight 3.5-point underdogs. So far, they are 20-14 and lead the Southeast Division.
Against other teams in the East, the Heat have gone 15-10 compared to 5-4 in non-conference matchups. Miami has also been slightly better on the road than at home, both straight up and ATS. Their average scoring margin on the road is +2.3 points per game, and they are 11-8 ATS on the road. So far, they have 9th in the East.
The over/under record in Miami’s games is 16-18, and the under has hit in four straight games. This season, the majority of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s line of 229.5, with their average OU line for the season sitting at 222.3.
When looking at their ATS performance, Miami is 1-2 straight up and 2-1 ATS. For the season, they have been the underdog in 15 of their 34 games and have gone 8-7 vs. the spread in those games.
In their latest game, the Heat’s offense put up 110 points, which is in line with their season average of 112.9 points per game. When it comes to shooting, the Heat are 19th in the league with a 47% field goal percentage. From beyond the arc, the Heat are 2nd in three-point percentage and 13th in three-pointers made.
The Heat’s defense is presently ranked 6th in the league, allowing an average of 111.5 points per contest. The Miami defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.0% of their field goal attempts vs. Miami.
As the Suns get ready to host the Heat, they are sitting 9th in the West, and 3rd in the Pacific Division on a record of 18-16. If they are able to cover the spread as 3.5-point favorites, they will improve to 13-22 ATS for the season.
So far, Phoenix has been the favorite in 24 of their 34 games and have a scoring margin of +4 PPG in those games. At home, the Suns have an average scoring margin of +1.4 PPG and are 10-10 for the season.
Against the Western Conference, the Suns have gone 12-12 compared to 6-4 in non-conference matchups. Phoenix has also dropped two straight games as the underdog (ATS).
When looking at the over/under results, the Suns have gone 19-15 with OU lines averaging 229.2 points per game. Today’s line of 229.5 is just below their average over/under record of 12-5 this season.
In their most recent game, the Suns scored 122 points against the Clippers. Overall, they shot 53.2% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. Over their last three games, the Suns have an effective field goal percentage of 57.6%, which is higher than their season-long EFG of 54% (11th). In their five most recent games, the Suns are 29th in three-point shooting at 42.6%.
On defense, Suns is currently around the league average in points allowed, giving up an average of 114.1 points per game. In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Suns defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 53.2% while allowing 36.7% from downtown.
Even though they are 3.5 point underdogs, we see the Heat winning this game by a score of 117-112.
Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- We like the Heat on the moneyline (+134)
- The Heat are also our pick on the spread at +3.5
- Our NBA model projects 229 points, and we suggest taking the under
Phoenix Suns Injury Report
- Eric Gordon – Knee – Questionable
- Kevin Durant – Hamstring – Questionable
- Damion Lee – Knee – Out
- Nassir Little – Knee – Questionable
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Foot – Out
- Haywood Highsmith – Concussion – Out
- Caleb Martin – Ankle – Doubtful
- Dru Smith – Knee – Out
