Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets Preview
In a non-conference matchup, the Denver Nuggets (-118) travel to take on the Milwaukee Bucks (-103) at Fiserv Forum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 ET and can be seen on BSW.
As of this writing, the Nuggets (-1.5) are the favorite over the Bucks (+1.5) and the over/under line is set at 232.5 points.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Bucks – Denver Nuggets odds
Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head and Key Stats
When looking back on the last three head-to-head matchups between Milwaukee and Denver, the Nuggets hold the edge with a record of 2-1. Not only does the team have the better record, but they have won in convincing fashion, posting an average scoring differential of 7 points.
- Through their last five road contests, the Nuggets offense has averaged 103 points per game while allowing an average of 115. Denver posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 2-2-1 ATS.
- Through their last three home games, Milwaukee has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 114 points per game.
- In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have a straight up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 0-3.
- Through their previous three contests as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a strong record of 3-0. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-2.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
The Nuggets are favored by 1.5 points in today’s game against the Bucks. This season, Denver has been favored in 46 of their 53 games and has gone 34-12 in those games. As the favorite, they have a scoring differential of +5.1 points per game.
Denver’s ATS record for the season is 22-29, including a 10-17 ATS record on the road. The team’s straight-up road record is 15-13. Coming into the game, they have won five straight games against the spread as the favorite.
Denver’s O/U record for the season is 19-33-1, and their games have averaged 225.6 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 232.5 is higher than the team’s season average of 227.7.
In their last game, the Nuggets lost to the Kings by a score of 135-106. The O/U line for that game was 230.5 points. Denver was a 3-point underdog in the game, giving them an ATS loss.
Overall, the Nuggets are 36-17 this season, which is good for 3rd place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 16-5 compared to 20-12 against the West.
Coming into tonight’s game, the Nuggets are 18th in the NBA in scoring at 114.6 points per game. However, they have struggled to score on the road, averaging just 110.2 points per game away from home.
Denver has been one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league, ranking 6th in field goal percentage. However, they are just 28th in three-point attempts and 26th in free throw attempts.
When it comes to pace, the Nuggets are the slowest team in the NBA, averaging just 95.8 possessions per game. They are also 29th in free throw attempts and 26th in free throw makes.
This season, the Nuggets defense has been impressive, holding the 6th position in the league while permitting an average of 111.0 points per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Nuggets squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 53.0% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 36.2% from downtown.
The Bucks have performed better against the spread at home this season, going 11-17 compared to 9-16 on the road. Today, they are 1.5-point underdogs and have an ATS record of 20-33 overall.
As underdogs, the Bucks are 0-6 straight-up this season, and their ATS losing streak as underdogs is at five games. On average, they have been outscored by 16 points per game as underdogs.
In their last game, the Bucks easily covered the spread as 16-point favorites against the Hornets. They won the game by a score of 120-84, and the O/U line was set at 229.
Milwaukee’s O/U record for the season is 29-24, and their games have averaged a combined 242.2 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 232.5.
With a win over the Hornets, the Bucks improved to 34-19 on the season. They are currently 2nd in the Central Division and 3rd in the Eastern Conference.
When it comes to scoring, the Bucks are one of the NBA’s top teams, averaging 122.9 points per game, which is 2nd in the league. At home, they are averaging 124.7 points per game.
So far this season, the Bucks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 73.6% of their games. However, they have scored less than their own scoring average in each of their last four games.
When it comes to pace, the Bucks are 4th in the NBA at 101.5 possessions per game. In terms of shooting, they are 5th in field goal percentage at 49% and have made 37% of their three-point attempts (8th).
Coming into the game, the Bucks’ defense is giving up an average of 119.3 points per game. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA league average in 66.0% of their games. So far this season, the Bucks’ defense has struggled with fouls, averaging 8th in fouls per contest. On average, opponents are getting to the line 23.1 times per game vs. Milwaukee.
In spite of being 1.5 point underdogs, we anticipate the Bucks winning this one 125-123.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets Betting Tips
- We like the Bucks on the moneyline (-103)
- The Bucks are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 248 points, we like the over
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Knee – Probable
- Khris Middleton – Ankle – Out
- Damian Lillard – Ankle – Probable
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Hamstring – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
- Michael Porter Jr. – Knee – Probable
