Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
Betting on today’s Thunder and Heat game? Catch the action at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL, as the Heat hosts this showdown at 7:30 ET on BSSU.
The Thunder come into this non-conference matchup as the betting favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 234.5 points. Check out BetCoco for Miami Heat – Oklahoma City Thunder odds
Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Head-to-Head and Key Stats
In the last three games that the Heat have hosted the Thunder, they are a perfect 3-0. Across the last three head to head matchups between the Thunder and Heat, the teams have averaged 223 points per game with an over/under record of 2-1. The last three times they have faced off with the Heat as the home team, the OU record is 0-3.
- Across their three previous road games, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 0-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 129 points per game.
- Across their ten previous home games, Miami has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 5-5 while averaging 107 points per game.
- The last ten games that Miami was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 4-6 straight up.
- Through their previous three contests as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a strong record of 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-2.
Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
Coming into today’s game, the Thunder are 4.5-point favorites over the Heat. Oklahoma City is 24-11 overall and 14-8 against other Western Conference teams. In non-conference games, they are 10-3.
Oklahoma City is 2nd in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Northwest Division. On the road, the Thunder are 10-6 straight up and 10-6 ATS. At home, they have won four straight games and are 14-5 overall and 14-5 ATS.
When playing on the road, the Thunder have a scoring margin of +6.8 points per game. At home, their scoring margin is +8.2 points per game.
So far, the Thunder have been the favorites in 21 of their 35 games and have gone 16-5 straight up and 14-7 ATS in those games. Their average scoring margin as the favorite is 11.1 points per game.
In their last game, the Thunder beat the Wizards by a score of 136-128. They were 10.5-point favorites in that game, so they did not cover the spread. The over/under line for the game was 245.5 points, and the teams combined for 264 points.
So far this season, the Thunder have an over/under record of 21-14. Their games have had an average of 236.8 points per game. Today’s over/under line of 234.5 points is lower than their season average of 233.3 points.
When it comes to scoring, the Thunder are one of the best in the league, averaging 122.2 points per game (4th). On the road, they are averaging 119.5 points per game (4th).
So far this season, the Thunder have outscored the NBA scoring average in 77.1% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 9th in the league at 100.1 possessions per game.
One area where the Thunder have excelled is their three-point shooting. They are currently 1st in the league in three-point shooting percentage at 39%. Overall, they are 2nd in field goal percentage (50%).
Coming into the game, the Thunder defense has held opposing team’s to fewer points than the league average in 48.6% of their games. Currently, they are 15th in the NBA at 114.6 points per game allowed. Inside the arc, the Thunder defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 51.1% and 36.5% from three-point territory.
Coming into today’s game, the Heat are 4.5-point underdogs at home vs. the Thunder. Miami is 21-15 overall and has won three straight at home.
In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are 5th and lead the Southeast Division with a 7-0 record against division opponents. In non-conference games, Miami is 6-5.
Against the spread, the Heat are 17-18 overall and have covered the spread in three straight home games. As the underdog, Miami is 8-8 ATS.
On average, the Heat’s games have seen a combined 224.3 points scored, and their over/under record is 17-19.
So far, Miami has been the underdog in 16 of their 36 games and has a scoring margin of -1.2 in those games. As the favorite, the Heat are 15-5 and have an average scoring margin of 2.9.
At home, Miami is 10-6 straight up and 6-10 ATS. Their home scoring margin is +0.7 points per game.
At home, the Heat are averaging 116.9 points per game, which is 12th in the NBA. Overall, they are 23rd in scoring at 112.7 points per game. So far this season, Miami has outscored the league average in 41.7% of their games.
From beyond the arc, the Heat are shooting 38% on the season, which is 3rd in the NBA. They are also 6th in free throw attempts per game at 24.3. In terms of pace, Miami is 28th in the league at 96.8 possessions per game.
When it comes to two-point shooting, the Heat are 23rd in the NBA at 52%. In terms of assists, Miami is 15th at 26.2 per game. So far this season, they have made an average of 12.8 three-pointers per game.
At this time, the Heat’s defense is positioned 9th in the NBA, permitting 111.6 points per game. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Heat squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 55.9% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 36.6% from downtown.
With a 4.5-point advantage on the spread, our projections favor the Thunder to secure a 117-113 victory.
Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Tips
- Take the Thunder on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Heat (+4.5)
- Our NBA model projects 230 points, and we suggest taking the under
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Kyle Lowry – Hand – Doubtful
- Jimmy Butler – Toe – Out
- Caleb Martin – Ankle – Doubtful
- Dru Smith – Knee – Out
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
- Davis Bertans – Illness – Questionable
