Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Preview
At 8:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-165) will host the New Orleans Pelicans (+138) in a non-conference matchup. The Heat (-3.5) are favored by 3.5 points and the over/under line is set at 205.5.
This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on NBA TV. The Pelicans are currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 42-27, while the Heat are 7th in the East at 38-31.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Heat – New Orleans Pelicans odds
Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Head-to-Head and Key Stats
In the last three games between New Orleans and Miami, the Heat have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 14 points per contest. Across the last three head-to-head matchups, Miami is averaging 110 points compared to New Orleans at 96.
- The Pelicans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
- The Heat are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
- Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Pelicans have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-2.
- Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Heat struggled vs the spread going just 1-4. However, they still had a straight up mark of 4-1.
Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction
In Pelicans games this season, the average over/under line is 228.6, which is higher than today’s line of 205.5. Their games have averaged 226.7 points per game.
New Orleans’ O/U record for the season is 30-39, and all of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line. In their last game vs. the Magic, the teams combined for 227 points, going over the O/U line of 207.5.
The Pelicans are 38-30 against the spread this season, including a road ATS record of 19-16. As the underdog, they are 15-10 vs. the spread, and their average scoring margin as the underdog is -0.6 points per game.
Against the Magic, the Pelicans lost by a score of 121-106, failing to cover the spread as 2.5-point favorites. This dropped their overall record to 42-27, which is currently 5th in the Western Conference.
In games against other Western Conference teams, the Pelicans are 26-18 compared to 16-9 in non-conference play. On the road, they are 22-14, and they are the 11th seed in the West.
On offense, the Pelicans are 13th in the NBA in scoring at 115.8 points per game. Interestingly, they have scored slightly more points on the road (115.1) compared to at home (116.6). This season, New Orleans has outscored the NBA scoring average in 53.6% of their games.
When it comes to pace, the Pelicans are 17th in the league at 97.6 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 8th overall at 48%. However, they are just 20th in three-point shooting at 37%.
As a team, New Orleans is 7th in two-point field goals made per game (55%) and 14th in offensive rebounds. In terms of assists, they are 11th in the NBA.
At this time, the Pelicans’ defense is positioned 8th in the NBA, permitting 110.9 points per game. Inside the arc, the Pelicans defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 55.1% and 34.6% from three-point territory.
In Miami’s games this season, the average over/under line has been 221.9, which is higher than today’s line of 205.5. Their games have averaged 218.9 points per game.
Looking at their ATS record, the Heat are 32-34 for the season. At home, they are 12-20 ATS and have failed to cover the spread in four straight games at home.
In their win over the Cavaliers, the Heat were 3-point underdogs and won by a score of 107-104. This improves their overall record to 38-31, which is 7th in the Eastern Conference.
Against other Eastern Conference teams, the Heat are 26-18 compared to 12-13 against the West. As the favorite, they are 27-11 this season and have won two straight games as the favorite.
Miami’s O/U record for the season is 25-44. In their last game vs. the Cavaliers, the O/U line was 207.5, and the teams combined for 211 points.
At home, the Heat are averaging 112.7 points per game, which is 22nd in the league. Overall, they are 27th in scoring at 109.7 points per game. In terms of pace, Miami is 29th in the NBA.
When it comes to three-point shooting, the Heat are 10th in the league at 37%. However, they are just 23rd in field goal percentage. In terms of two-point shooting, Miami is 28th in the NBA.
On average, the Heat are making 18.2 free throws per game, which is 10th in the league. In terms of assists, Miami is 22nd in the NBA.
At present, the Heat’s defense is ranked 4th, allowing 109.2 points per game. Inside the arc, the Heat defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 55.2% and 36.2% from three-point territory.
Even though they are 3.5 point underdogs, we see the Pelicans winning this game by a score of 114-112.
Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Betting Tips
- We like the Pelicans on the moneyline (+138)
- The Pelicans are also our pick on the spread at +3.5
- Projecting a combined 226 points, we like the over
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Kevin Love – Heel – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Bam Adebayo – Back – Questionable
- Duncan Robinson – Back – Out
- Tyler Herro – Foot – Out
New Orleans Pelicans Injury Report
- Brandon Ingram – Knee – Questionable
- Dyson Daniels – Knee – Out
