Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Preview
The Rockets and Heat are set to face off at 7:30 ET on BSSU. The Heat will host the game at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.
This non-conference matchup has an over/under of 219.5 points, and the Heat are favored to win at home vs. the Rockets. Check out BetCoco for Miami Heat – Houston Rockets odds
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last three times that the Heat have faced off vs. the Rockets as the favorite, they have gone 3-0. The last three times that the Heat have hosted the Rockets, the over/under record is 2-1 with the teams combining for an average of 208 points. The over/under record in their last three overall matchups is 2-1.
- Houston has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 114 points per game while allowing 113. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
- Through their last three home games, Miami has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 103 points per game.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Rockets have a straight up record of 4-6. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.
- Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Heat have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 7-3.
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Prediction
Heading into today’s game vs. the Heat, the Rockets are the 4.5-point underdogs on the road. Before today’s game, they sit 8th in the West and 3rd in the Southwest at 18-16.
So far, Houston has been slightly better against the spread on the road, putting together a 6-6 record compared to going 15-6 at home. The Rockets have also been the underdog in 23 of their 34 games this season and have gone 12-10 against the spread in those games.
When playing on the road, Houston has a scoring margin of -5.3 points per game this season. Their average scoring differential at home is +7.5 points per game.
Against the Bucks, the Rockets picked up a 112-108 win as 7-point underdogs. The over/under line in that game was 237.5 points, and the teams combined to score 220 points.
The Rockets’ offense is averaging 112.5 PPG this season, and they scored 112 points in their last game. Alperen Sengün is the team’s leading scorer at 21.4 PPG, while Jalen Green is averaging 17.4 PPG.
Currently, the Rockets’ defense holds the 2nd rank in the NBA, allowing 109.9 points per game. The Houston defense has allowed opponents to shoot 32.6% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 45.2% of their field goal attempts vs. Houston.
With an overall record of 20-15, the Heat will look to pick up a win at home today as 4.5-point favorites over the Rockets. If they are able to come through, the Heat will also move above .500 at home for the season, as they are currently 9-6.
Miami’s over/under record for the season is sitting at 16-19, and they have finished below the OU line in five straight games. Today’s over/under line of 219.5 is slightly below their average over/under line of 222.5. So far, 13 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s line.
In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are in 8th place and sit 2nd in the Southeast. Against other teams in the East, Miami has gone 15-10 compared to 5-5 in non-conference games.
When playing at home, Miami has put together an average scoring margin of +0.3 PPG and have gone 9-6 straight up. Their two-game ATS winning streak has moved their overall ATS record to 16-18. As the favorite, Miami has gone 14-5 this season.
When comparing to their season average of 112.5 points per game, the Heat struggled to score. Against the Suns, they only put up 97 points and shot 41% from the field. Overall, the Heat are 20th in the country with a 46% field goal percentage. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 15th in makes and 2nd in percentage.
At this time, the Heat’s defense is positioned 9th in the NBA, permitting 111.6 points per game. The Miami defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.7% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.1% of their field goal attempts vs. Miami.
Even though they are 4.5 point underdogs, we see the Rockets winning this game by a score of 116-115.
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Betting Tips
- We like the Rockets on the moneyline (+157)
- The Rockets are also our pick on the spread at +4.5
- Projecting a combined 231 points, we like the over
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Toe – Out
- Caleb Martin – Ankle – Doubtful
- Dru Smith – Knee – Out
Houston Rockets Injury Report
- Victor Oladipo – Knee – Out
- Dillon Brooks – Abdomen – Out
- Tari Eason – Leg – Out
