Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Preview
At 8:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-139) will travel to take on the Houston Rockets (+116) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line for the game is currently set at 214.5 points.
Miami comes into the game with a 42-34 record and is currently 7th in the Eastern Conference. On the other side, the Rockets have lost three straight and are 11th in the West at 38-38.
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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Heat have gone a perfect 3-0 in their last three head to head matchups vs. the Rockets. Not only have the Heat gone 2-1 against the spread in their last three games vs. the Rockets, they are also 3-0 ATS the last three times they have faced the Rockets on the road.
- The Heat are 3-2 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
- In their last ten games at home, the Rockets have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 113 points per game in this stretch.
- Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Rockets have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-2.
- Through their last three games as the favorite, the Heat have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction
Miami’s O/U record for the season is 30-46, and the over has hit in their last four games. Today’s line of 214.5 is lower than their season average of 218.2 points per game.
In Miami’s last game, they lost to the 76ers by a score of 109-105. The O/U line for that game was 211.5 points, and the Heat were favored by 3 points going into the game.
Overall, Miami is 42-34 this season, which has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference. Against the spread, they are 36-37 for the season and 21-14 on the road.
As the favorite this season, the Heat are 31-13 and have gone 20-21 vs. the spread. As the favorite, they have a scoring margin of +4.5 points per game compared to -2.9 points per game as the underdog.
In non-conference games, Miami has gone 13-15 compared to 29-19 against the East. On the road, they are 22-16 and have won their last two games straight up and ATS.
This season, the Heat have struggled to keep up with the NBA scoring average, as they have been below the average in 63.2% of their games. Currently, they are 27th in the league in scoring at 109.8 points per game.
When playing on the road, Miami’s offense has been slightly worse, averaging 107.4 points per game compared to 112.2 at home. In terms of pace, the Heat are 29th in the NBA.
From beyond the arc, Miami is 18th in three-point shooting at 37%. Overall, they are 24th in field goal percentage and 28th in two-point shooting.
Miami’s defense has been playing well, ranking 4th in the NBA with 108.4 points allowed per game. Inside the arc, the Heat defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 55.3% and 35.9% from three-point territory.
As the underdog, the Rockets have gone 15-33 this season and are currently on a three-game losing streak as the underdog. The team’s ATS record as the underdog is 24-23.
Houston’s O/U record for the season is 37-39, and the over has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is 214.5, and their games have averaged 226.8 points per game this season.
In their last game, the Rockets lost to the Warriors by a score of 133-110. The O/U line for that game was 227.5, and Houston was getting 3 points as the underdog.
Overall, the Rockets are 38-38 this season and are currently in 11th place in the Western Conference. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 26-22 and 9-6 against division opponents.
For the season, the Rockets have an ATS record of 43-32, including a 27-12 ATS record at home. However, they have failed to cover the spread in their last two home games.
At home, the Rockets are scoring 116.3 points per game, which is 13th in the league. Overall, they are 16th in the NBA at 114 points per game. In terms of pace, Houston is 14th at 99.1 possessions per game.
So far this season, the Rockets have outscored the NBA scoring average in 42.1% of their games. In terms of field goal percentage, Houston is 26th in the league at 45%. From beyond the arc, the Rockets are 23rd in three-point shooting at 35%.
When it comes to free throw attempts, the Rockets are 6th in the NBA at 23.4 per game. In terms of assists, Houston is 27th in the league at 24.6 per game. On average, the Rockets are grabbing 11.5 offensive rebounds per game, which is 6th in the NBA.
On defense, the Rockets come into the game ranked 11th in the league in points allowed at 112.8 per game. Over their last three games, the team is allowing 123.7 points per contest (10th). When it comes to forced turnovers, the Rockets are forcing 12.3 per game, which is 12th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 24th in blocked shots at 4.5 per game.
Based on our projections, we have the Heat coming out on top by a score of 113-110.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- Take the Heat on the moneyline
- The Heat should also cover at -2.5
- Projecting a combined 223 points, we like the over
Houston Rockets Injury Report
- Steven Adams – Knee – Out
- Alperen Sengün – Ankle – Out
- Tari Eason – Leg – Out
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Tyler Herro – Foot – Out
