Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Preview
Betting on today’s Heat and Warriors game? Catch the action at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA, as the Warriors hosts this showdown at 10:00 ET on NBCS.
This non-conference matchup has an over/under of 227.5 points, and the Warriors are favored to win at home vs. the Heat. Check out BetCoco for Golden State Warriors – Miami Heat odds
Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last three times that the Warriors have faced off vs. the Heat as the favorite, they have gone 3-0. When looking back over the last ten head to head meetings between the Heat and Warriors, the Heat hold the edge with an ATS record of 7-3.
- When looking at their past three road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 114 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
- Across the Warriors last three home games, the team averaged 115 points per game while allowing 118. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
- Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
- In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Warriors have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Prediction
In their last game, the Heat picked up a 119-113 win over the 76ers. They won the game as 2-point favorites and have now won three straight games and are favored to win their fourth straight game today vs. the Warriors.
So far, the Heat have gone 18-12 and are in 4th place in the Eastern Conference. In road games, their record is 9-6, and they have an average scoring differential of +2.8 points per contest.
Against the spread, Miami is 14-15, and they have covered the spread in three straight games. On the road, their ATS record is 9-5, and they have been favored in 18 of their 30 games.
Miami’s average over/under line this season is 221.3 points. Their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line of 227.5 points in three of their four games with a higher over/under line than today’s line.
Overall, the Heat’s over/under record for the season is 16-14. Today’s over/under line is their highest of the season. When combining the two teams’ average scoring, Miami’s games have finished with an average of 225.3 points per contest.
In their last game, Miami scored 119 points, which is above their season-average of 113.4 points per game. When it comes to offense, the Heat rank 16th in the NBA with a field goal percentage of 47%. In terms of three-pointers, they are 10th in total makes and 1st in percentage.
This season, the Heat defense has been impressive, holding the 8th position in the league while permitting an average of 111.9 points per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Heat squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 55.6% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 37.7% from downtown.
In their last game, the Warriors lost to the Nuggets by a score of 120-114. Golden State was able to cover the spread as 7.5-point underdogs.
Overall, the Warriors are 15-15 and sit in 11th place in the Western Conference. Against other teams in the West, Golden State is 11-13 compared to going 4-2 against non-conference opponents.
When playing at home, the Warriors are 9-6, and they have won eight straight games at home. Golden State’s average scoring margin at home this season is +1.1 points per contest.
Against the spread, Golden State’s home record is 5-9, and they have covered the spread in four straight home games. As the favorite, the Warriors have gone 6-11 vs. the spread this season.
Against the spread, Golden State’s overall record is 14-15, and they have covered the spread in four straight games. As the favorite, their ATS record is 12-5.
When looking at the over/under lines for their games, the average over/under line is 229.6, and their games have averaged 233 points. Golden State’s over/under record for the season is 16-13-1.
In their most recent game, the Warriors scored 114 points, which is close to their season average of 117.1. Looking at the last three games, the Warriors have an effective field goal percentage of 58.5%, while their season-long EFG is 54% (17th). Over their last five games, the Warriors are shooting 35.9% from three-point range, which is 14th in the league.
So far, the Warriors defense is giving up 115.9 points per contest, which has them sitting 19th in the NBA. One thing to note, is they have given up more points than their season average in four straight matchups. Golden State’s defense is currently forcing 14.8 turnovers per game, which is 27th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 28th in blocked shots, with an average of 3.3 rejections per game.
Despite being 2.5 point underdogs, we predict the Heat to come out on top with a final score of 117-112.
Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- We like the Heat on the moneyline (+120)
- The Heat are also our pick on the spread at +2.5
- Projecting a combined 229 points, we like the over
Golden State Warriors Injury Report
- Draymond Green – Suspension – Out
- Gary Payton II – Calf – Out
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Kyle Lowry – Soreness – Questionable
- Jimmy Butler – Calf – Questionable
- Josh Richardson – Back – Doubtful
- Duncan Robinson – Ankle – Questionable
- Caleb Martin – Ankle – Doubtful
- Dru Smith – Knee – Out
