Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Preview
The Heat and Celtics tip off their first-round series at 1:00 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston. This first-round Eastern Conference matchup is being televised on ABC. The Celtics are the 1 seed in the East and are favored by 14 points at home. The over/under line is 209 points, and the Celtics are -1122 on the money line compared to the Heat at +697.
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Heat and Celtics did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Celtics have the leg up at 3-0. However, against the spread the Heat went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 233 points per game.
- Across their last three road contests, Miami has a 3-0 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 112 points per game.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Celtics offense has averaged 118 points per game while allowing an average of 106. Boston posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 6-4 ATS.
- Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-9.
- In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a straight up record of 4-1, while going 2-2-1 against the spread.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction
Miami’s O/U record for the season is 35-47, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line is set at 209, which is lower than their season average of 218.5.
On the road, the Heat have an average scoring differential of +1.6 PPG. Their ATS record on the road is 24-14, and they have covered the spread in their last five road games.
In the Eastern Conference, Miami is currently in 8th place with a record of 46-36. Within the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place.
Miami’s last game was a 118-103 win over the Raptors. They were favored by 16.5 points in that game and are now 23-22 ATS as the favorite. The Heat have won three straight games as the favorite.
In non-conference games, Miami has gone 14-16 compared to 32-20 against the East. This season, the Heat are 11-23 as the underdog and 17-17 ATS as the underdog.
Miami comes into the game as one of the lower-scoring teams in the league, averaging 110.1 points per game. They are even worse on the road, at 108.1 points per contest. The Heat are near the bottom of the league in pace this season, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.
Looking at Tyler Herro’s last five games, he is averaging 21.8 points per game on 46.6% shooting. In these games, he hit 2.8 threes per game. Jimmy Butler has hit 54.5% of his threes in his last five games and is averaging 18.6 points per game in that stretch. Bam Adebayo is averaging 19.3 points and 10.4 rebounds this season.
Coming into the game, the Heat defense has held opposing team’s to fewer points than the league average in 20.7% of their games. Currently, they are 4th in the NBA at 108.4 points per game allowed. Miami’s defense is currently forcing 11.8 turnovers per game, which is 5th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 30th in blocked shots, with an average of 3.4 rejections per game.
As the Celtics look to improve their ATS record at home to 22-17, they are favored by 14 points against the Heat. In their last two games as the favorite, the Celtics have gone 2-0 straight-up and 39-35 ATS.
Boston’s O/U record for the season is 43-38-1, and they have hit the over in three straight games. This season, their games have averaged 229.8 points per game, compared to today’s line of 209.
In their most recent game, the Celtics defeated the Wizards by a score of 132-122. The O/U line for that game was 228.5, giving the teams a combined scoring total of 254.
Boston’s win over Washington improved their overall record to 64-18, which is the best in the Eastern Conference. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 41-11 and 15-2 against division opponents. The Celtics have won two straight games and are 41-37 ATS for the season.
Heading into today’s game, the Celtics are the NBA’s second-ranked scoring offense, at 120.6 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 123.1 points per contest on their home floor. Boston leads the league in three-point shooting percentage this season, at 38% and are also the top team in terms of three-pointers made per game.
Jayson Tatum comes into the game averaging 26.9 points per game to go along with 8.1 rebounds. Payton Pritchard has been hot of late, averaging 22.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 60.3% of his shots from the field. Jaylen Brown is averaging 23 points per game for the season but just 18.3 over his last three games while hitting 25% of his threes.
So far, the Celtics’ defense is ranked 6th in the league at 109.2 points per contest. Boston’s defense is currently forcing 11.3 turnovers per game, which is 1st in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 1st in blocked shots, with an average of 6.6 rejections per game.
With the Celtics being favored by 14, our NFL analytics models has this one playing out 114-110 in favor of the Celtics.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- Take the Celtics on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Heat (+14)
- Projecting a combined 224 points, we like the over
Boston Celtics Injury Report
- Luke Kornet – Calf – Out
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Knee – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Terry Rozier – Neck – Out
- Duncan Robinson – Back – Questionable
