Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
At 9:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves will travel to take on the Denver Nuggets in a Western Northwest division matchup. The Timberwolves come into the game on a three-game win streak and are 2nd in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 1st in the West and are favored by 6.5 points.
This game will be played at Ball Arena in Denver and can be seen on ALT. The over/under line for the game is currently set at 210.5 points.
Check out BetCoco for Denver Nuggets – Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Timberwolves and Nuggets did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Nuggets have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Timberwolves went 3-0. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 215 points per game.
- The Timberwolves are 3-0 ATS in their three last road games and 3-0 straight-up.
- Across the Nuggets last ten home games, the team averaged 112 points per game while allowing 110. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 5-5, while going 7-3 straight-up.
- Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 2-1 while going 1-2 straight up.
- Over the team’s last three games as the favorite, the Nuggets struggled vs the spread going just 1-2. However, they still had a straight up mark of 2-1.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
In Minnesota’s last game against the Pistons, the teams combined for 197 points, which was well below the O/U line of 217. The Timberwolves won the game by a score of 106-91, giving them a straight-up record of 50-22 for the season. In the Western Conference, they are currently in 2nd place.
As the underdog, Minnesota has a record of 8-8 this season, and they are getting 6.5 points against the Nuggets. Their ATS record as the underdog is 10-6, and they have covered the spread in their last two games as the underdog.
On the road, Minnesota has an average scoring differential of +5.1 points per game, and they are 24-13 straight-up. Against the spread on the road, they are 20-16 compared to 17-18 at home.
This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 36-36, and 68 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 210.5. The average combined scoring total in their games is 219.4 points.
This season, the Timberwolves have been a strong three-point shooting team, leading the league in three-point shooting percentage at 38%. They are 15th in the NBA in three-point makes per game at 12.7.
Overall, Minnesota is 18th in scoring at 113.1 points per game. On the road, they have averaged 114.6 points per game, compared to 111.4 at home.
Coming into this game, the Timberwolves have outscored the NBA scoring average in 43.1% of their games. They are 10th in field goal percentage and 9th in true shooting percentage.
So far, the Timberwolves’ defense is ranked 1st in the league at 106.3 points per contest. On two point field goal attempts, the Timberwolves’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 50.6% and allowing 35.2% from beyond the arc.
Today, the Nuggets are favored by 6.5 points at home against the Timberwolves. This season, Denver has been favored in 63 of their 73 games and has a record of 47-16 in those games.
As the favorite, the Nuggets have gone 28-33 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +6 points per game. Their O/U record as the favorite is 29-42-2.
Against the Western Conference, the Nuggets are 29-16 this season and 22-6 against non-conference opponents. Their record of 51-22 is the best in the Western Conference.
In their last game, the Nuggets lost to the Suns by a score of 104-97. The O/U line for that game was 228.5, and Denver was favored by 5.5 points. This dropped their ATS record to 33-38 for the season.
This season, Denver has an average scoring differential of +9.4 points per game at home. Their overall ATS record at home is 18-17, compared to 15-21 on the road.
On the season, the Nuggets have an O/U record of 29-42-2, and their games have averaged 224.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 210.5 is lower than their season average of 226.5.
This season, the Nuggets are one of the most efficient teams in the NBA, ranking 5th in field goal percentage and 11th in true shooting percentage. Denver’s offense is also 2nd in two-pointers made per game, but they are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, ranking 28th in both three-pointers made and attempted per game.
When playing at home, the Nuggets are averaging 118.4 points per game, which is 10th in the NBA. Overall, Denver is 14th in scoring this season, averaging 114.6 points per game. In terms of pace, the Nuggets are 28th in the league.
So far this season, Denver has outscored the NBA scoring average in 47.9% of their games. In terms of free throw shooting, the Nuggets are 29th in both free throws made and attempted per game.
Not only do the Nuggets’ overall defensive numbers look good, as they are 7th in the league in points allowed. Denver has also been playing well on defense of late, ranking 21st in the league over their last three games at 106 PPG allowed. Denver’s defense is currently forcing 11.7 turnovers per game, which is 6th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 11th in blocked shots, with an average of 5.5 rejections per game.
Even though they are 6.5 point underdogs, we see the Timberwolves winning this game by a score of 112-107.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- We like the Timberwolves on the moneyline (+220)
- The Timberwolves are also our pick on the spread at +6.5
- Projecting a combined 219 points, we like the over
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Nikola Jokic – Back – Probable
- Jamal Murray – Knee – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
- Zeke Nnaji – Adductor – Out
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
- Rudy Gobert – Rib – Questionable
- Karl-Anthony Towns – Knee – Out
- Anthony Edwards – Back – Questionable
- Jaylen Clark – Achilles – Out
