Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Preview
At 7:30 ET, the 8th ranked Miami Heat (35-29) will host the 2nd ranked Denver Nuggets (45-20) in a non-conference matchup. The Nuggets are favored by 5 points and have won three straight games. The over/under line for the game is 214.5 points.
This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on ESPN. The Nuggets are 2nd in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Northwest Division. On the other side, the Heat are 8th in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the Southeast Division. Miami has lost three straight games.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Heat – Denver Nuggets odds
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Over their previous five games against the Heat, the Nuggets have put together a record of 4-1. When looking back over the last ten head to head meetings between the Nuggets and Heat, the Nuggets hold the edge with an ATS record of 7-3.
- Through their last ten road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 5-4-1. However, their overall record was 6-4 while averaging 109 points per game.
- In their last three home games, Miami has averaged 101 points per game while allowing 108. The team’s record in this stretch was 0-3 while going 2-1.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 4-6. Their record vs the spread in these games was 7-3.
- Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a strong record of 4-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 2-3.
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
The Nuggets have won three straight games on the road and are 18-14 on the road this season. In the Western Conference, they are 2nd with a record of 45-20.
Denver’s ATS record on the road is 13-18, and they are 24-29 as the favorite. Today, they are favored by 5 points and have a 29-34 ATS record overall.
In their last game, the Nuggets beat the Raptors by a score of 125-119. The O/U line for that game was 231 points, and Denver was favored by 17 points going into the game.
This season, the Nuggets have an O/U record of 25-38-2, and the over has hit in three straight games. On average, their games have finished with 225.7 points.
Against the Western Conference, the Nuggets are 25-14 and 20-6 in non-conference games. In the Northwest Division, they are in 2nd place.
When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are 15th in the NBA at 115 points per game. However, on the road, they are averaging just 111 points per game (22nd). Denver has outscored the league average in 49.2% of their games this season.
One area where the Nuggets are excelling is in two-point shooting. They are 2nd in the league in two-point field goals made per game. Overall, Denver is shooting 49% from the field (4th).
So far this season, the Nuggets have been one of the top teams in terms of assists, ranking 3rd in the NBA. However, they are just 27th in three-pointers made per game and 29th in free throws made per game.
On average, the Denver defense is giving up 110.7 points per game (7th). Right now, they are on a 4 game streak of giving up fewer points than their season average. In the terms of takeaways, Nuggets are causing 11.8 turnovers per game, ranking 5th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 11th in rejections, averaging 5.6 blocked shots each game.
Miami has lost three straight games and is currently 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 35-29. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place.
In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are 23-17 this season and have gone 12-12 against non-conference opponents. Today, they are 5-point underdogs at home and have gone 10-18 as underdogs this season.
For the season, Miami has an ATS record of 30-31, including going 12-19 ATS at home. In their last three games, they have failed to cover the spread at home.
In their most recent game, the Heat lost to the Wizards by a score of 110-108. The O/U line for that game was 228.5, and Miami was favored by 11.5 points going into the game.
Miami’s O/U record for the season is 24-40, and their games have averaged 220.4 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 214.5, and the Heat have had 53 of their games with higher O/U lines.
At home, the Heat have been slightly better offensively, averaging 113.5 points per game compared to their overall average of 110.5 (22nd). On the season, Miami has outscored the NBA average in 39.1% of their games.
So far, the Heat are 21st in field goal percentage (46%) and 29th in pace (96.1). In terms of three-point shooting, Miami is 6th in three-point percentage (37%) and 17th in made threes per game (12.4).
When it comes to free throws, the Heat are 7th in made free throws per game (18.5) and 12th in free throw attempts (22.7). In terms of assists, Miami is 20th in the league with 25.9 per game.
This season, the Heat’s defense is the 6th ranked defense in the NBA at 6th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 75.0% of their games. For the season, Miami is ranked 26th in fewest fouls per game. Team’s are averaging 20.0 free-throws per game vs. the Heat and have an overall field goal percentage of 47.2%.
Even though they are considered 5-point underdogs, our projection points to a 114-110 win for the Heat.
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Betting Tips
- We like the Heat on the moneyline (+163)
- The Heat are also our pick on the spread at +5
- Projecting a combined 224 points, we like the over
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Illness – Probable
- Kevin Love – Heel – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Tyler Herro – Foot – Out
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
