Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Preview
At 8:00 ET, the 8th-seeded Miami Heat (+265) will take on the 3rd-seeded Milwaukee Bucks (-335) in an Eastern Conference matchup. The over/under line for this game is currently set at 225.5.
Currently, the Bucks are favored by 8 points at home over the Heat. Milwaukee enters this game with a 35-19 record and are on a 2-game win streak. Meanwhile, Miami is 28-25 and is 2nd in the Southeast Division.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Bucks – Miami Heat odds
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last three times that the Bucks have faced off vs. the Heat as the favorite, they have gone 2-1. The over/under record in the five most recent head to head games between the Heat and Bucks is 5-0 with an average of 239 points per game. The last three times that the Heat have been on the road vs. the Bucks, the over/under record is 5-0.
- Although Miami has a straight up record of 4-6 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-6-2. The team averaged 103 points per game in these games.
- Across the Bucks last ten home games, the team averaged 115 points per game while allowing 120. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-9, while going 4-6 straight-up.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 3-7. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.
- As the betting favorite, the Bucks have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Milwaukee posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction
Miami is 6-15 as the underdog this season and has lost six straight games as the underdog. As the underdog, they are 9-12 against the spread and 13-12 straight up on the road.
The Heat’s O/U record for the season is 21-32, and their last two games have gone under the betting line. Today’s O/U line is set at 225.5, which is lower than their season average of 221.1.
In their last game, the Heat lost to the Celtics by a score of 110-106. They were 8-point underdogs going into the game, giving them an ATS win. The O/U line for that game was 224 points.
Miami is currently 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 28-25. Against other teams in the East, they are 20-16 compared to 8-9 in non-conference games.
On the road, the Heat are 11-11 against the spread, and their straight-up record is 13-12. As the underdog, they have an ATS record of 9-12.
When it comes to scoring, the Heat are 27th in the league at 110.4 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 107.4 points per game.
In terms of pace, Miami is 28th in the NBA at 96.3 possessions per game. This season, they have outscored the league average in 34% of their games.
From beyond the arc, the Heat are 11th in three-point shooting at 37%. Overall, they are 27th in field goal percentage at 46%.
So far, the Heat’s defense is ranked 4th in the league at 110.8 points per contest. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Heat are forcing 12.2 per game, which is 9th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 30th in blocked shots at 3.2 per game.
In their last three games, the Bucks have been favored by an average of 6.3 points per game. Today, they are favored by 8 points against the Heat. Milwaukee has been the favorite in all but six of their games this season.
Milwaukee’s ATS record this season is 21-33, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. At home, the Bucks are 12-17 ATS, while they are 9-16 ATS on the road.
In the Eastern Conference, the Bucks are currently in 3rd place with a record of 35-19. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 25-12 compared to 10-7 in non-conference games.
The Bucks’ O/U record for the season is 29-25, and their last two games have gone under the line. This season, their games have averaged 241.6 points per game.
The Bucks’ last game was a 112-95 win over the Nuggets. They were favored by 1 point in that game, and the O/U line was 230. The win was the Bucks’ 2nd straight, and they are 35-19 on the season.
When it comes to scoring, the Bucks are one of the top teams in the league, averaging 122.7 points per game (2nd). At home, they are scoring 124.2 points per game.
So far this season, the Bucks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 72.2% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 4th in the league at 101.4 possessions per game.
When it comes to shooting, the Bucks are 4th in field goal percentage at 49%. They are also 2nd in two-point shooting percentage (58%). From beyond the arc, they are hitting 37% of their shots (6th).
At this time, the Bucks’ defense is positioned 23rd in the NBA, permitting 118.9 points per game. So far this season, the Bucks’ defense has struggled with fouls, averaging 8th in fouls per contest. On average, opponents are getting to the line 22.9 times per game vs. Milwaukee.
Our prediction for this game is that the Bucks will come out on top with a projected score of 125-97.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- Take the Bucks on the moneyline
- The Bucks should also cover at -8
- Our NBA model projects 222 points, and we suggest taking the under
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
- Khris Middleton – Ankle – Out
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Personal – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Terry Rozier – Right Knee – Out
- Duncan Robinson – Elbow, Shoulder – Questionable
- Dru Smith – Knee – Out
